{"id":17890,"date":"2026-01-12T15:10:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/?page_id=17890"},"modified":"2026-05-25T10:45:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T02:45:26","slug":"development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/research\/development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides\/","title":{"rendered":"Precision in Predicting Extreme Coastal Events (H1-P1)"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled-1.jpg\" alt=\"precision in predicting extreme coastal events h1-p1\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1435\" \/><\/p>\r\n<h1>Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides<\/h1>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>This project focuses on developing probability distributions and extreme value analyses for storm surges, currents, wind waves, and astronomic tides. By improving the precision of models that simulate extreme local conditions, the research enhances our understanding of concurrent coastal hazards and their combined impacts on Singapore.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Research Goals<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li data-start=\"1461\" data-end=\"1585\">Analyse historical coastal phenomena to identify and understand the extremes that affect Singapore&#8217;s coastal resilience.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1586\" data-end=\"1770\">Develop high-resolution storm surge and tide models (Delft3D-FM) and wind-wave models (WW3) using downscaled atmospheric data from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS).<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1771\" data-end=\"1856\">Produce projections of storm surge, tide, and wind-wave variability and extremes.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1857\" data-end=\"1990\">Build statistical tools for probability distribution and return period (RP) estimation to support coastal flood risk assessments.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1991\" data-end=\"2104\">Generate high-resolution scenarios of regional weather-climate extremes to inform long-term strategic planning.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Why This Matters<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li data-start=\"2590\" data-end=\"2762\">Supports long-term planning for Singapore&#8217;s coastal resilience led by agencies such as the National Environment Agency (NEA) and PUB, Singapore&#8217;s National Water Agency.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"2839\">Establishes new benchmarks for high-resolution coastal hazard modelling.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"2840\" data-end=\"2953\">Strengthens Singapore&#8217;s local capabilities and contributes tools and data adaptable to future IPCC assessments.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Latest Research Highlights<\/h2>\r\n<p><strong>Regional Wind-Wave Modelling<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A high-resolution wind-wave model has been developed, optimized, and validated against satellite and in-situ observations. Using historical and CMIP6 climate projections, the model provides insights into future wave conditions to support coastal resilience planning.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Sea-Level and Storm Surge Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Tide gauge analyses reveal a clear trend of relative sea-level rise in the Singapore Strait. Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of long-term records estimates the heights of rare storm surge events. A validated storm surge model now supports flood risk assessments and informs reclamation and protection planning.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Wave-Structure Interaction Studies<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>The XBeach Non-Hydrostatic (NH) model has been validated for wave propagation, providing CFI with a robust tool to study wave-structure interactions and guide the design of coastal protection measures.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Atmospheric Modelling and Extreme Weather Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been optimized to simulate Sumatra squalls and validated against observed wind and rainfall. This enhances capabilities in analyzing extreme events, future scenario modelling, and providing boundary conditions for surge and wave models.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Meet the Team<\/h2>\r\n<p>Meet the team behind the <em data-start=\"710\" data-end=\"845\">Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides<\/em> project &#8211; using cutting-edge research and analysis to improve predictions of extreme coastal conditions and strengthen Singapore&#8217;s resilience.<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Pavel\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Pavel-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr pavel tkalich coastal protection and flood resilience singapore\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Principal Investigator (PI): <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Pavel Tkalich<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering,<br \/>Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI) <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Farzin\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Farzin-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr samsazi farzin senior research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Samsami Farzin<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering<br \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Srivatsan Vijayaraghavan\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Srivatsan-Vijayaraghavan-150x150.png\" alt=\"srivatsan vijayaraghavan principal research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Principal Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Srivatsan V Raghavan<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"xingkun\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/xingkun-150x150.png\" alt=\"dr xu xingkun research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Xu Xingkun<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Nguyen Ngoc Son_TMSI_CFI2\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Nguyen-Ngoc-Son_TMSI_CFI2-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"nguyen ngoc son tmsi coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Nguyen Ngoc Son<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering,<br \/>Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI) <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Xu Haihua (1)\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Xu-Haihua-1-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Xu Haihua (1)\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Xu Haihua<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Sumit\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Sumit-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr sumit dandapat senior research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Sumit Dandapat<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore,<br \/>College of Design and Engineering<\/p>\r\n<h2>More Projects from the H1 Domain<\/h2>\r\n<p>Explore other ongoing research initiatives under the Coastal Protection and Flood Resilience Institute (CFI) that advance Singapore&#8217;s resilience to sea-level rise, extreme weather, and coastal flooding.<\/p>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P2-REDUCED\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P2-REDUCED.png\" alt=\"Unravelling Uncertainties in Coastal Extremes h1-p2\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Hybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Hybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P.jpeg\" alt=\"H1-P3\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Model Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Model Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P4-reduced\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P4-reduced.png\" alt=\"Enhancing Sediment Monitoring with Smart Technology h1-p4\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Enhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Enhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p>Download CFI&#8217;s project booklet for more information on each project<br \/><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/10\/CFI-Singapore-Tranche1-and-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFI Singapore Tranche 1 and 2<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>If you wish to reach out regarding a specific project, please email CFI Singapore at <a href=\"mailto:cfisg@nus.edu.sg\">cfisg@nus.edu.sg<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides &nbsp; This project focuses on developing probability distributions and extreme value analyses for storm surges, currents, wind waves, and astronomic tides. By improving the precision of models that simulate extreme local conditions, the research enhances our understanding [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":335,"featured_media":0,"parent":15747,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-17890","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/335"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17890"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18284,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890\/revisions\/18284"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}