{"id":17890,"date":"2026-01-12T15:10:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/?page_id=17890"},"modified":"2026-07-17T17:21:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T09:21:25","slug":"development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/research\/development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides\/","title":{"rendered":"Precision in Predicting Extreme Coastal Events (H1-P1)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled-1.jpg\" alt=\"precision in predicting extreme coastal events h1-p1\" height=\"1435\" width=\"2560\" title=\"H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t\t<h1>Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides<\/h1><p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This project focuses on developing probability distributions and extreme value analyses for storm surges, currents, wind waves, and astronomic tides. By improving the precision of models that simulate extreme local conditions, the research enhances our understanding of concurrent coastal hazards and their combined impacts on Singapore.<\/p>\n\t\t<h2>Research Goals<\/h2><ul>\n<li data-start=\"1461\" data-end=\"1585\">\nAnalyse historical coastal phenomena to identify and understand the extremes that affect Singapore&#8217;s coastal resilience.\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1586\" data-end=\"1770\">\nDevelop high-resolution storm surge and tide models (Delft3D-FM) and wind-wave models (WW3) using downscaled atmospheric data from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS).\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1771\" data-end=\"1856\">\nProduce projections of storm surge, tide, and wind-wave variability and extremes.\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1857\" data-end=\"1990\">\nBuild statistical tools for probability distribution and return period (RP) estimation to support coastal flood risk assessments.\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1991\" data-end=\"2104\">\nGenerate high-resolution scenarios of regional weather-climate extremes to inform long-term strategic planning.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t\t<h2>Why This Matters<\/h2><ul>\n<li data-start=\"2590\" data-end=\"2762\">\nSupports long-term planning for Singapore&#8217;s coastal resilience led by agencies such as the National Environment Agency (NEA) and PUB, Singapore&#8217;s National Water Agency.\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2763\" data-end=\"2839\">\nEstablishes new benchmarks for high-resolution coastal hazard modelling.\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2840\" data-end=\"2953\">\nStrengthens Singapore&#8217;s local capabilities and contributes tools and data adaptable to future IPCC assessments.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/plugins\/bb-plugin\/img\/pixel.png\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t\t<h2>Latest Research Highlights<\/h2><strong>Regional Wind-Wave Modelling<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>A high-resolution wind-wave model has been developed, optimized, and validated against satellite and in-situ observations. Using historical and CMIP6 climate projections, the model provides insights into future wave conditions to support coastal resilience planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<strong>Sea-Level and Storm Surge Analysis<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>Tide gauge analyses reveal a clear trend of relative sea-level rise in the Singapore Strait. Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of long-term records estimates the heights of rare storm surge events. A validated storm surge model now supports flood risk assessments and informs reclamation and protection planning.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<strong>Wave-Structure Interaction Studies<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The XBeach Non-Hydrostatic (NH) model has been validated for wave propagation, providing CFI with a robust tool to study wave-structure interactions and guide the design of coastal protection measures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<strong>Atmospheric Modelling and Extreme Weather Prediction<\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li>The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been optimized to simulate Sumatra squalls and validated against observed wind and rainfall. This enhances capabilities in analyzing extreme events, future scenario modelling, and providing boundary conditions for surge and wave models.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t\t<h2>Meet the Team<\/h2><p>Meet the team behind the <em data-start=\"710\" data-end=\"845\">Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides<\/em> project &#8211; using cutting-edge research and analysis to improve predictions of extreme coastal conditions and strengthen Singapore&#8217;s resilience.<\/p>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Pavel-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr pavel tkalich coastal protection and flood resilience singapore\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Pavel\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Principal Investigator (PI): <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Pavel Tkalich<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering,<br \/>\nTropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI)\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Farzin-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr samsazi farzin senior research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Farzin\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Farzin Samsami<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering, Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine\u00a0 (TMSI)\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Srivatsan-Vijayaraghavan-150x150.png\" alt=\"srivatsan vijayaraghavan principal research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Srivatsan Vijayaraghavan\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Principal Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Srivatsan V Raghavan<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/xingkun-150x150.png\" alt=\"dr xu xingkun research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"xingkun\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Xu Xingkun<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Nguyen-Ngoc-Son_TMSI_CFI2-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"nguyen ngoc son tmsi coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Nguyen Ngoc Son_TMSI_CFI2\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Nguyen Ngoc Son<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering,<br \/>\nTropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI)\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Xu-Haihua-1-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Xu Haihua (1)\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Xu Haihua (1)\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Xu Haihua<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/Sumit-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"dr sumit dandapat senior research fellow coastal protection and flood resilience institute\" height=\"150\" width=\"150\" title=\"Sumit\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t<\/figure>\n\t<p><strong>Senior Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\n<strong>Dr Sumit Dandapat<\/strong><br \/>\nNational University of Singapore,<br \/>\nCollege of Design and Engineering\n\t\t<h2>More Projects from the H1 Domain<\/h2><p>Explore other ongoing research initiatives under the Coastal Protection and Flood Resilience Institute (CFI) that advance Singapore&#8217;s resilience to sea-level rise, extreme weather, and coastal flooding.<\/p>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P2-REDUCED.png\" alt=\"Unravelling Uncertainties in Coastal Extremes h1-p2\" height=\"1450\" width=\"2560\" title=\"H1-P2-REDUCED\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/figure>\n<h3>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information\" title=\"Hybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\tHybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/h3>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P.jpeg\" alt=\"H1-P3\" height=\"1450\" width=\"2560\" title=\"H1-P\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/figure>\n<h3>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" title=\"Model Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\tModel Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/h3>\n<figure>\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P4-reduced.png\" alt=\"Enhancing Sediment Monitoring with Smart Technology h1-p4\" height=\"1450\" width=\"2560\" title=\"H1-P4-reduced\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/figure>\n<h3>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" title=\"Enhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\tEnhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/h3>\n\tDownload CFI&#8217;s project booklet for more information on each project<br \/>\n<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/10\/CFI-Singapore-Tranche1-and-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFI Singapore Tranche 1 and 2<\/a><\/strong>\n<p>If you wish to reach out regarding a specific project, please email CFI Singapore at <a href=\"mailto:cfisg@nus.edu.sg\">cfisg@nus.edu.sg<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides &nbsp; This project focuses on developing probability distributions and extreme value analyses for storm surges, currents, wind waves, and astronomic tides. By improving the precision of models that simulate extreme local conditions, the research enhances our understanding [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":335,"featured_media":0,"parent":15747,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rs_blank_template":"","rs_page_bg_color":"","slide_template_v7":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-17890","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/335"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17890"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18679,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17890\/revisions\/18679"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}