{"id":17902,"date":"2026-01-12T15:33:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/?page_id=17902"},"modified":"2026-05-25T10:30:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T02:30:13","slug":"hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/research\/hybrid-physics-guided-and-data-driven-attribution-and-uncertainty-quantification-of-coastal-extremes-incorporating-different-sources-of-information\/","title":{"rendered":"Unravelling Uncertainties in Coastal Extremes (H1-P2)"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P2-REDUCED\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P2-REDUCED.png\" alt=\"Unravelling Uncertainties in Coastal Extremes h1-p2\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/><\/p>\r\n<h1>Hybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information<\/h1>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>This project seeks to uncover the key factors driving extreme coastal flooding in Singapore. By integrating physics-based modelling with data-driven methods, it aims to deliver detailed insights into the causes and uncertainties of coastal extreme events &#8211; helping PUB, Singapore&#8217;s National Water Agency, enhance its long-term risk mitigation strategies.<\/p>\r\n<h2>Research Goals<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li data-start=\"1409\" data-end=\"1523\">Develop a hybrid physics-guided and data-driven framework to attribute and analyse coastal extreme events.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1524\" data-end=\"1675\">Predict joint probabilities of extreme sea levels and wave conditions while quantifying uncertainties through statistical confidence intervals.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"1676\" data-end=\"1777\">Build stochastic climate emulators to simulate extensive ensembles of future climate scenarios.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Why This Matters<\/h2>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li data-start=\"2179\" data-end=\"2327\">Provides reliable statistical estimates of extreme sea levels and wave conditions, with projections extending to 10,000-year return periods.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"2328\" data-end=\"2442\">Enables scientific quantification of uncertainties, supporting more accurate forecasts of coastal hazards.<\/li>\r\n<li data-start=\"2443\" data-end=\"2598\">Offers new insights into regional climate impacts and global sea-level rise, guiding national strategies and policy decisions for coastal resilience.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Latest Research Highlights<\/h2>\r\n<p><strong>High-Confidence Statistical Estimates of Extreme Sea Levels and Waves<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Advancing reliable predictions of ultra-extreme coastal processes (e.g. extreme wave condition) by combining Bayesian updating with statistical and physical modelling across South China Sea and around Singapore.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Mechanistic Insights via COAWST Simulations<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>An initial mechanistic analysis of how atmospheric pressure, wind-driven waves, and tidal currents jointly influence extreme water levels in coastal events is provided by fully-coupled COAWST simulations.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<p><strong>Event Directionality and Synchronization Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>A graph-based causal inference framework is developed to investigate the causality of extreme water levels.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<h2>Meet the Team<\/h2>\r\n<p>Meet the researchers driving the <em data-start=\"862\" data-end=\"964\">Hybrid Physics-Guided and Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes<\/em> project &#8211; applying cutting-edge physics-based and data-driven methods to improve predictions of extreme coastal conditions and strengthen Singapore&#8217;s resilience.<\/p>\r\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"prof-low-ying-min-h1-p2\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/prof-low-ying-min-h1-p2-1.png\" alt=\"prof low ying min h1p2\" width=\"184\" height=\"181\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Principal Investigator (PI): <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Associate Professor Low Ying Min<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"JIANG QIN-H1P2-RF\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/JIANG-QIN-H1P2-RF.jpg\" alt=\"dr jiang qin research fellow h1p2\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2560\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Jiang Qin<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"SHI YANG-H1P2-RF\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/SHI-YANG-H1P2-RF.jpg\" alt=\"prof shi yang h1 p2\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Shi Yang<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"ZHU WENJUN-H1P2-RF\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/ZHU-WENJUN-H1P2-RF.jpg\" alt=\"Zhu Wenjun research fellow h1p2\" width=\"2442\" height=\"2442\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Research Fellow: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Dr Zhu Wenjun<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Design and Engineering <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"GAO XINGE-H1P2-Ph.D. student\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/11\/GAO-XINGE-H1P2-Ph.D.-student.jpg\" alt=\"gao xinge phd student cfi\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2560\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>PhD Student: <\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Ms Gao Xinge<\/strong><br \/>National University of Singapore, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Design and Engineering<\/p>\r\n<h2>More Projects from the H1 Domain<\/h2>\r\n<p>Explore other ongoing research initiatives under the Coastal Protection and Flood Resilience Institute (CFI) that advance Singapore&#8217;s resilience to sea-level rise, extreme weather, and coastal flooding.<\/p>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P1_PRECISION-IN-PREDICTING-EXTREME-COASTAL-EVENTS_V8_b-scaled-1.jpg\" alt=\"precision in predicting extreme coastal events h1-p1\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1435\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/development-of-probability-distributions-and-extreme-value-analysis-for-storm-surge-levels-currents-wind-waves-and-astronomic-tides\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P.jpeg\" alt=\"H1-P3\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Model Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/model-development-and-quantifications-of-coupled-near-shore-processes-impacted-by-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Model Development and Quantifications of Coupled Near-shore Processes Impacted by Climate Change <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"H1-P4-reduced\" src=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2025\/10\/H1-P4-reduced.png\" alt=\"Enhancing Sediment Monitoring with Smart Technology h1-p4\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1450\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\r\n<h3><a title=\"Enhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters\" href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/enhancements-in-the-predictions-of-sediment-transport-around-singapore-coastal-waters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Enhancements in the Predictions of Sediment Transport Around Singapore Coastal Waters <\/a><\/h3>\r\n<p>Download CFI&#8217;s project booklet for more information on each project<br \/><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/39\/2024\/10\/CFI-Singapore-Tranche1-and-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CFI Singapore Tranche 1 and 2<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p>If you wish to reach out regarding a specific project, please email CFI Singapore at <a href=\"mailto:cfisg@nus.edu.sg\">cfisg@nus.edu.sg<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hybrid Physics-Guided And Data-Driven Attribution and Uncertainty Quantification of Coastal Extremes Incorporating Different Sources of Information &nbsp; This project seeks to uncover the key factors driving extreme coastal flooding in Singapore. By integrating physics-based modelling with data-driven methods, it aims to deliver detailed insights into the causes and uncertainties of coastal extreme events &#8211; helping [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":335,"featured_media":0,"parent":15747,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-17902","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/335"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17902"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18287,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/17902\/revisions\/18287"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/15747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cde.nus.edu.sg\/cfisg\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}