Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides
This project focuses on developing probability distributions and extreme value analyses for storm surges, currents, wind waves, and astronomic tides. By improving the precision of models that simulate extreme local conditions, the research enhances our understanding of concurrent coastal hazards and their combined impacts on Singapore.
Research Goals
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Analyse historical coastal phenomena to identify and understand the extremes that affect Singapore’s coastal resilience.
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Develop high-resolution storm surge and tide models (Delft3D-FM) and wind-wave models (WW3) using downscaled atmospheric data from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS).
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Produce projections of storm surge, tide, and wind-wave variability and extremes.
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Build statistical tools for probability distribution and return period (RP) estimation to support coastal flood risk assessments.
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Generate high-resolution scenarios of regional weather–climate extremes to inform long-term strategic planning.
Why This Matters
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Supports long-term planning for Singapore’s coastal resilience led by agencies such as the National Environment Agency (NEA) and PUB, Singapore’s National Water Agency.
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Establishes new benchmarks for high-resolution coastal hazard modelling.
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Strengthens Singapore’s local capabilities and contributes tools and data adaptable to future IPCC assessments.
Latest Research Highlights
- A high-resolution wind–wave model has been developed, optimized, and validated against satellite and in-situ observations. Using historical and CMIP6 climate projections, the model provides insights into future wave conditions to support coastal resilience planning.
- Tide gauge analyses reveal a clear trend of relative sea-level rise in the Singapore Strait. Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of long-term records estimates the heights of rare storm surge events. A validated storm surge model now supports flood risk assessments and informs reclamation and protection planning.
- The XBeach Non-Hydrostatic (NH) model has been validated for wave propagation, providing CFI with a robust tool to study wave–structure interactions and guide the design of coastal protection measures.
- The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been optimized to simulate Sumatra squalls and validated against observed wind and rainfall. This enhances capabilities in analyzing extreme events, future scenario modelling, and providing boundary conditions for surge and wave models.
Meet the Team
Meet the team behind the Development of Probability Distributions and Extreme Value Analysis for Storm Surge Levels, Currents, Wind Waves and Astronomic Tides project — using cutting-edge research and analysis to improve predictions of extreme coastal conditions and strengthen Singapore’s resilience.
Principal Investigator (PI):
Dr Pavel Tkalich
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering,
Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI)
Senior Research Fellow:
Dr Samsami Farzin
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering
Principal Research Fellow:
Dr Srivatsan V Raghavan
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering
Research Fellow:
Dr Xu Xingkun
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering
Senior Research Fellow:
Dr Nguyen Ngoc Son
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering,
Tropical Marine Science Institute and Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine (TMSI)
Senior Research Fellow:
Dr Xu Haihua
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering
Senior Research Fellow:
Dr Sumit Dandapat
National University of Singapore,
College of Design and Engineering
More Projects from the H1 Domain
Explore other ongoing research initiatives under the Coastal Protection and Flood Resilience Institute (CFI) that advance Singapore’s resilience to sea-level rise, extreme weather, and coastal flooding.
Download CFI's project booklet for more information on each project
CFI Singapore Tranche 1 and 2
If you wish to reach out regarding a specific project, please email CFI Singapore at cfisg@nus.edu.sg